NWS: Severe Risk Upgraded

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Updated: April 13, 2018

According to the National Weather Service in Shreveport strong to severe thunderstorms will be developing early this afternoon with the severe weather threat further intensifying by mid to late afternoon through this evening. Much of our region is either in a Moderate Risk or an Enhanced Risk during this time frame. All modes of severe weather will be possible, including the threat of potentially strong and long track tornadoes. Large hail and damaging winds are also significant threats as well with the possibility of discrete supercells initially during the afternoon with very large hail, eventually evolving into a linear complex of storms with the primary threat of damaging winds later this evening and overnight.

Dr. Greg Forbes with the Weather Channel has given the entire state of Arkansas a TOR:CON of 7 meaning that there is a 70% chance that a tornado could touch down within 50 miles of any given point in the state.

The TOR:CON index ranges from 0 to 10. Multiply the value by 10 to get your percentage chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a location. For example, a TOR:CON index of 6 means there’s a 60% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location in the indicated area.

TOR:CON Value Descriptions

8+ Very high probability of a tornado
6 – High probability of a tornado
4 – Moderate chance of a tornado nearby, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
2 – Low chance of a tornado, but hail and/or high wind gusts possible
0 – Near-zero chance of a tornado or a severe thunderstorm